Methodology
How estimates are meant to work.
These are the principles the calculation will follow.
Under development
Deterministic, testable and versioned
The same answers should always produce the same result. Calculations will be covered by tests and every change will carry a version number.
Transparent assumptions and limitations
Each estimate should explain what it assumes and what it can't account for.
Grounded in authoritative UK sources
Guidance and thresholds should be traceable to recognised UK sources.
Clear treatment of missing or uncertain answers
'Not sure' is never quietly treated as zero. Uncertainty will be shown, not hidden.
Planning aids, not guarantees
Readiness estimates help you plan. They can't predict or guarantee how any situation will unfold.
Sources informing the provisional questions
These sources explain why some needs are kept separate. They are not turned into personalised advice, and no scores, durations or coefficients are calculated from them.
- Prepare: get prepared for emergencies (UK Government)
General water guidance is used only as a planning reference, not a personalised requirement.
- Prepare: power cuts (UK Government)
Informs the lighting, charging and communications questions.
- NHS: drinks and cups for babies and young children
Infant needs depend on age and feeding, so babies are considered separately.
- Food Standards Scotland: power cuts
Fridge and freezer timings depend on conditions, so the food question leaves chilled food out.
- Cats Protection: cats and drinking
Animal needs vary by species, diet and health, so no pet amounts are calculated.